Forza Horizon 5 What are the odds of winning the Wheel Spin? (Series 1…
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A series of various data collections to look at. For reference.
The "Wheel Spin" slot gives you a prize of one of the following: cars, clothes, horns, emotes, and credits.
Compared to the previous game, Forza Horizon 4, this FH5 game seems to be less likely to produce good results.
I have the impression that it's overwhelmingly easier to get credits than before...
But what is the truth?
I spun the slot over 200 times to see how many wins I could get.
*The "win" here refers to things other than credits.
High-value credits may fall into the category of wins, but this time I'll treat "cars, clothes, emotes, and horns" as wins.
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●Series and version used at time of investigation:
Series 12 Horizon Road Trip / September 15, 2022
Ver. 1.507.426.0 (steam)
↑ Ah, I can't read the numbers...!
Series 12 Horizon ROAD TRIP
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This is a video of the results of continuously spinning the slots.
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
◆Survey results
◆Total number of wheel spins this time: 203
The numbers next to each rarity mean...
Left: Number of times each rarity appeared
Right: Number of times that something other than credits was won
Total number of WS: 203/81
Forza Edition: 1/1
Legendary: 10/6
Epic: 26/13
Rare: 37/21
Common: 129/40
Appearance rate of each rarity is
Forza Edition: 0.49%
Legendary: 4.93%
Epic: 12.81%
Rare: 18.23%
Common: 63.55%
This is the least number of trials, so the margin of error is likely to be large.
Roughly speaking, the probability may be as follows:
Forza Edition: 0.5%
Legendary: 5%
Epic: 10-15%
Rare: 15-20%
Common: 60-70%
*Actually, this is almost the same appearance rate as the previous game, FH4.
And
The probability of winning (here, anything other than CR) for the number of appearances for each rarity is
Forza Edition: 100%
Legend: 60%
Epic: 50%
Rare: 56.8%
Common: 31%
FE only has cars, so it's natural that it's 100%...
Legend, epic, and rare are non-CR 1 in 2 times.
Common is also 1 in 3 times.
...That's quite a lot of winning.
If you look at all rarities together,
the number of times I won something other than credits was 81.
In terms of probability, that's about 40%. I won something almost 1 in 2 times.
Also, if you limit it to winning cars, there were 52 cars out of 203 slots.
The overall probability of winning a car is about 26%,
which means that if you spin the slot, you'll win a car 1 in 4 times.
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...The odds of winning are higher than I expected.
Still, I feel like there are a lot of losers, maybe because the prizes above and below are arranged in a mean way.
When you win credits, I get the impression that good things often come above and below,
so maybe that makes the impression of losing stand out.
The 2000 credits I won sandwiched between cars... so pointless.
And when the Forza Edition and an Epic car lined up above and below were even more frustrating...
By the way, the credits that are considered losers this time...
The number of CRs that appeared on the slot was 119.
Total amount: 6,609,000.
It was 6.6 million.
The average amount per spin is about 32,000 or more.
That's a pretty high average amount.
Looking at the average, you can't say the credits are a bad idea...
PS:
For reference.
In the previous game, FH4, the average amount of credits you could get from spinning this slot machine was
27,829 for a super wheel spin
24,266 for a normal wheel spin.
The average amount in FH5 is higher than in the previous game.
In this game, you can spend money not only on cars but also on costumes and other things
so maybe the amount you can get from spinning has increased?
The "Wheel Spin" slot gives you a prize of one of the following: cars, clothes, horns, emotes, and credits.
Compared to the previous game, Forza Horizon 4, this FH5 game seems to be less likely to produce good results.
I have the impression that it's overwhelmingly easier to get credits than before...
But what is the truth?
I spun the slot over 200 times to see how many wins I could get.
*The "win" here refers to things other than credits.
High-value credits may fall into the category of wins, but this time I'll treat "cars, clothes, emotes, and horns" as wins.
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
●Series and version used at time of investigation:
Series 12 Horizon Road Trip / September 15, 2022
Ver. 1.507.426.0 (steam)
↑ Ah, I can't read the numbers...!
Series 12 Horizon ROAD TRIP
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
This is a video of the results of continuously spinning the slots.
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
◆Survey results
◆Total number of wheel spins this time: 203
The numbers next to each rarity mean...
Left: Number of times each rarity appeared
Right: Number of times that something other than credits was won
Total number of WS: 203/81
Forza Edition: 1/1
Legendary: 10/6
Epic: 26/13
Rare: 37/21
Common: 129/40
Appearance rate of each rarity is
Forza Edition: 0.49%
Legendary: 4.93%
Epic: 12.81%
Rare: 18.23%
Common: 63.55%
This is the least number of trials, so the margin of error is likely to be large.
Roughly speaking, the probability may be as follows:
Forza Edition: 0.5%
Legendary: 5%
Epic: 10-15%
Rare: 15-20%
Common: 60-70%
*Actually, this is almost the same appearance rate as the previous game, FH4.
And
The probability of winning (here, anything other than CR) for the number of appearances for each rarity is
Forza Edition: 100%
Legend: 60%
Epic: 50%
Rare: 56.8%
Common: 31%
FE only has cars, so it's natural that it's 100%...
Legend, epic, and rare are non-CR 1 in 2 times.
Common is also 1 in 3 times.
...That's quite a lot of winning.
If you look at all rarities together,
the number of times I won something other than credits was 81.
In terms of probability, that's about 40%. I won something almost 1 in 2 times.
Also, if you limit it to winning cars, there were 52 cars out of 203 slots.
The overall probability of winning a car is about 26%,
which means that if you spin the slot, you'll win a car 1 in 4 times.
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
...The odds of winning are higher than I expected.
Still, I feel like there are a lot of losers, maybe because the prizes above and below are arranged in a mean way.
When you win credits, I get the impression that good things often come above and below,
so maybe that makes the impression of losing stand out.
The 2000 credits I won sandwiched between cars... so pointless.
And when the Forza Edition and an Epic car lined up above and below were even more frustrating...
By the way, the credits that are considered losers this time...
The number of CRs that appeared on the slot was 119.
Total amount: 6,609,000.
It was 6.6 million.
The average amount per spin is about 32,000 or more.
That's a pretty high average amount.
Looking at the average, you can't say the credits are a bad idea...
PS:
For reference.
In the previous game, FH4, the average amount of credits you could get from spinning this slot machine was
27,829 for a super wheel spin
24,266 for a normal wheel spin.
The average amount in FH5 is higher than in the previous game.
In this game, you can spend money not only on cars but also on costumes and other things
so maybe the amount you can get from spinning has increased?